When Andry Rajoelina, President of Madagascar learned that an elite troop of his own army was rounding up key government sites, the shock was palpable. The upheaval unfolded on Madagascar Military MutinyAntananarivo at roughly 8:00 AM EAT, as dozens of streets were already clogged with angry Gen Z demonstrators. Power cuts, water shortages and a bruising economy had turned the capital into a pressure cooker; the mutiny was the lid that finally blew off.
Background: Power Outages Spark Nationwide Unrest
Since late September, Madagascar has been wrestling with a cascade of infrastructure failures. The national grid, already fragile, could not sustain demand, leaving 95% of households in Antananarivo without electricity and about 70% of residents in Toamasina, Antsirabe and Mahajanga in the dark. Water treatment plants stalled, forcing residents to queue for hours at dwindling taps. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Madagascar (INSTAT), inflation surged to 12.7% YoY in September, while GDP growth slipped from 3.8% in Q2 to 2.1% in Q3 2025.
The grim numbers translated into street protests that erupted on 25 September 2025. Young people – most of them in their teens and early twenties – took to the streets with homemade placards demanding reliable electricity and water. The demonstrations quickly spread to 18 of the country’s 23 regions, becoming the biggest coordinated youth uprising in Madagascar’s recent history.
Escalation: Gen Z Protests Sweep the Island
By 10 October, the protests had morphed from simple grievances to a broader call for political accountability. Demonstrators chanted for the resignation of Rajoelina, blaming his administration for the economic malaise. In a surprising move, the President dismissed his long‑standing Prime Minister Christian Ntsay, Prime Minister of Madagascar on 30 September, hoping to calm the crowds. The tactic backfired; the youth saw it as a desperate bluff.
Amid the unrest, a paramilitary youth group called the Jeunesse Patriotique pour la Démocratie et le Développement (Jenzier) – roughly 5,000 strong – broke ranks with the government on 11 October and pledged support to the demonstrators. Their decision signaled that the protest movement now had an organized, semi‑militarized wing ready to confront state forces.
The Mutiny Unfolds: CAPSAT Takes Control
Against this volatile backdrop, the Commandement des Actions de Protection, de Sécurité et d'Appui Tactique (CAPSAT), an elite tactical unit of the Madagascar National Army, mobilised around 300 troops. Their commander – an unnamed officer whose name remains sealed – ordered units to seize the Ivato International Airport, the state television headquarters and the presidential palace.
By 2:00 PM EAT, soldiers had raised the national flag over the palace and announced the removal of Senate head Rivo Rakotovao, Senator and Senate President. In a hastily arranged ceremony at the army headquarters, the mutineers installed General Andrianafidisoa, CAPSAT’s nominee for Chief of the General Staff as the new head of the armed forces. The ceremony was attended by Defense Minister Richard Ravalomanana and former Chief of Staff Serge Gellé.
A military spokesperson, speaking to First Post Live, stressed that the handover was “calm and respectful,” while CAPSAT issued a terse statement: “We have taken over the leadership of the military command and now control all land, air, and naval forces.”
Domestic and International Reactions
The mutiny triggered an immediate scramble among foreign airlines. Air France suspended its three daily flights (AF558, AF559, AF560) until at least 14 October 2025, citing safety concerns. Emirates halted its daily EK751 service, leaving the capital with virtually no commercial air links.
Across the globe, governments issued travel warnings. The United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, headed by Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, warned British nationals to avoid all but essential travel to Antananarivo, Toamasina and Nosy Be. Meanwhile, the U.S. Embassy in Antananarivo, led by Ambassador Michael Pelletier, U.S. Ambassador to Madagascar, issued an emergency alert urging roughly 1,200 American citizens to shelter in place, citing active gunfire near the Ambohitsorohitra Palace.
The African Union Commission, chaired by Moussa Faki Mahamat, Chairperson of the AU, called for calm and restraint, reminding all parties that Madagascar is a signatory to the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. The AU offered to mediate, but concrete steps have yet to materialise.
What Lies Ahead: Possible Scenarios
Analysts are split. Some see the mutiny as a short‑term power grab that could collapse under internal dissent or external pressure. Others argue that the military, having previously installed Rajoelina in 2009, now holds the reins and may seek a negotiated transition that preserves its influence.
Should the AU successfully broker talks, a provisional civilian‑military council could emerge, potentially paving the way for fresh elections in 2026. Conversely, if the standoff deepens, Madagascar risks sliding back into the constitutional crises of 1972, 1991‑92, 2002 and 2009, periods marked by international isolation and economic contraction.
For ordinary Malagasy, the immediate concern remains daily survival: power outages, water scarcity and the looming threat of violence. The next week will likely determine whether the island nation can stabilise or descend further into turmoil.
- Mutiny began: 12 Oct 2025, 8:00 AM EAT
- Key actors: President Andry Rajoelina, General Andrianafidisoa, Defense Minister Richard Ravalomanana
- Protests triggered by: 95% power outage in Antananarivo, 70% water shortage nationwide
- International response: Air France flights halted until 14 Oct, UK travel advisory, US shelter‑in‑place alert
- Economic backdrop: inflation 12.7%, GDP growth down to 2.1% Q3 2025
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the mutiny affect Madagascar’s youth protesters?
The takeover empowers the demonstrators by giving their demands a military backing, but it also raises the risk of harsh crackdowns. If the army consolidates power, the protests may be co‑opted or suppressed; a negotiated transition could grant youth representatives a role in future governance.
What led to the military’s decision to intervene?
Months of unchecked power and water outages eroded public confidence in President Rajoelina’s administration. The dismissal of Prime Minister Ntsay failed to pacify citizens, and the growing alliance between CAPSAT and the Jenzier youth group signalled a tipping point where the army felt compelled to act before the situation spiralled further.
Who are the international actors monitoring the crisis?
Key players include the African Union (Chair Moussa Faki Mahamat), the United Kingdom’s Foreign Office (Foreign Secretary David Lammy), and the United States Embassy (Ambassador Michael Pelletier). Airline carriers such as Air France and Emirates have also adjusted operations, reflecting broader economic concerns.
What are the possible outcomes for Madagascar’s political system?
Two main paths loom: a negotiated power‑sharing agreement that could lead to new elections, or a prolonged military rule that risks international sanctions and deeper economic decline. The AU’s mediation offers a slim chance for a civilian‑military council, but the trajectory will hinge on internal cohesion within CAPSAT and external diplomatic pressure.
How might the crisis impact Madagascar’s tourism sector?
Tourism, a vital source of foreign exchange, is already suffering from flight suspensions and travel advisories. If instability persists, visitor numbers could drop by up to 30% in the 2025‑26 season, further straining the economy already hit by high inflation.
